Exploring Social Media’s Future Without Some Of Its Biggest Influencers
TikTok has become synonymous with cultural innovation, driving viral trends and skyrocketing brand visibility. But what if U.S. users—who are instrumental to TikTok’s global reach—suddenly vanished? This scenario poses big questions for marketers about what a post-TikTok social media world might look like.
The U.S.: TikTok’s Powerhouse of Influence
For TikTok, the U.S. is more than just another market, it’s a trendsetting engine. From viral dances and memes to campaigns that make brands like CeraVe household names, American creators are at the heart of the platform’s global identity.
Without the United States, TikTok’s cultural landscape could fragment, with leadership in viral trends potentially shifting to other regions like Southeast Asia or countries like Brazil. For marketers, this would mean navigating a more localized and less unified digital space.
Potential cross-platform ripple effect
If the U.S. were to leave TikTok, the ripple effects wouldn’t just stop at the app, but could affect the broader social media ecosystem. Platforms like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, which are already inspired by TikTok’s success, could see an influx of users and advertisers.
Key shifts could include:
- Localized Trends Taking Over
Without U.S. users to unify the platform, trends may take on a regional flavor. Marketers would need to invest more effort in understanding and appealing to diverse local audiences. - Creators Adjusting to Longer Formats
Platforms like YouTube may gain traction with creators as they explore storytelling and narrative-driven formats, shifting away from TikTok’s short, punchy videos. - Experimentation with Alternative Platforms
Emerging players like Lemon8, Pinterest Idea Pins, and Snapchat Spotlight could attract attention as brands explore new options for connecting with their audiences.
The Creator Economy Faces Big Adjustments
For creators, TikTok has been a platform that turns niche ideas into mainstream success. An exit by the U.S. would shake up this ecosystem, forcing creators to adapt.
- Sales Challenges for Influencers
Many influencers reliant on TikTok’s algorithms to drive engagement might face significant drops in visibility and sales when shifting to other platforms. - Focus on Smaller, More Engaged Communities
Micro-influencers with dedicated followings on Instagram or YouTube could become more valuable to brands. These creators often offer highly engaged audiences with less competition for attention. - Partnerships with Longevity in Mind
Brands will likely seek deeper, long-term collaborations with creators to maintain consistency across different platforms.
Strategic Revenue Recovery
Businesses can recover a significant portion—up to 90% of potential revenue losses from TikTok’s absence within six to twelve months by carefully adjusting their marketing efforts. Here is an example of how resources could be effectively allocated:
Channel | Investment | Expected Revenue |
Instagram/Facebook | $60,000 | $240,000 |
YouTube Shorts | $20,000 | $60,000 |
Influencer Campaigns | $30,000 | $150,000 |
Website Optimization | $20,000 | $100,000 |
Email Campaigns | $0 | $40,000 |
Emerging Platforms | $10,000 | $30,000 |
A Plan for Brands: Adapting to a Shifting Landscape
For brands, agility is key in a world where TikTok’s future is uncertain. Here’s how to prepare:
- Repurpose TikTok content
We recommend downloading and using your TikTok content on other platforms such as YouTube shorts, Instagram reels and even Snapchat Spotlights. - Diversify Ad Budgets
Platforms like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts should play a bigger role in campaigns, alongside experiments on emerging platforms like Lemon8. - Strengthen Direct Channels
Invest in website usability and e-commerce enhancements, ensuring seamless shopping experiences. Use email marketing to re-engage TikTok customers with targeted offers. - Help Creators Thrive
Support TikTok influencers as they branch out into other platforms. Providing creative tools and collaboration opportunities can keep partnerships strong.
A plan for Creators
If the platform’s U.S. presence is disrupted, here’s how creators can adapt and thrive:
- Diversify Your Platform Presence
- Expand to Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts: These platforms already mimic TikTok’s format and are seeing growing engagement. Reels offer built-in discovery through Instagram’s network, while YouTube Shorts benefits from its search and SEO capabilities.
- Explore New Platforms: Emerging apps like Lemon8, Pinterest Idea Pins, and Snapchat Spotlight offer fresh opportunities to stand out. Experiment to find where your content resonates most.
- Focus on Community Building
- Strengthen Connections on Existing Platforms: Engage deeply with your followers on Instagram, YouTube, and even newsletters. Build loyalty with consistent, authentic interactions.
- Leverage Patreon or Substack: Diversify your income streams by offering exclusive content or perks to dedicated fans.
- Experiment with Formats
- Adapt to longer-form storytelling on platforms like YouTube to showcase deeper, narrative-driven content.
- Repurpose TikTok-style videos into multi-platform content to maintain a familiar, engaging aesthetic for followers.
- Collaborate with Brands Strategically
- Position yourself as a cross-platform influencer to offer brands more value.
- Negotiate for longer-term partnerships to create stability in your collaborations and income.
source: pewresearch.org
Preparing for the future
If TikTok continues to operate in the U.S., its value as a hub for brand engagement and trends will remain unmatched.
In 2024, TikTok Shop significantly boosted social commerce, with the “Beauty & Personal Care” category alone generating over $1 billion in revenue.
With over 1 billion monthly active users, influencers play a pivotal role in connecting authentically with audiences and influencing sales. Insights reveal that TikTok influencer campaigns can achieve engagement rates as high as 17.96%, significantly outpacing other platforms like Instagram. Brands that collaborate with creators not only benefit from enhanced reach but also higher conversion rates, with 49% of users stating TikTok has helped them make purchasing decisions. By partnering with influencers and aligning with viral trends, businesses can transform relatable content into meaningful commerce opportunities, ensuring sustained growth on the platform.
Looking ahead to 2025, TikTok aims to expand its Shop’s reach, targeting a $17.5 billion growth. Brands can leverage this momentum by integrating TikTok Shop into their marketing strategies, capitalizing on the platform’s growing user base and innovative shopping features to drive sales and engagement.
However, the future of TikTok in the U.S. remains uncertain. The Supreme Court is currently deliberating on a law that would require ByteDance to divest from TikTok or face a ban in the United States. During oral arguments, several justices appeared skeptical of TikTok’s efforts to overturn the law, suggesting that the platform’s operations could be significantly impacted if the law is upheld.
